Where does Iran — and the world — go from Khamenei death? All you need to know

For 45 of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s 47 years in existence, Ali Khamenei has held near-absolute power over the arc of its internal and external politics. On Sunday, as news reports of the Supreme Leader’s death in an airstrike trickled in, the Iranian regime found itself facing an unprecedented situation. In geopolitics, there are decades when weeks happen and weeks when decades happen. The seismic killing shows that there are also hours when decades happen. So, what’s next for Iran, the region, the world and India? These are the crucial questions before everyone as the fighting between Iranian forces and the US-Israel alliance continues. ## First, what does Khamenei’s death mean for Iran? Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the Iranian Revolution that ousted the Pahlavis, founded the Islamic Republic in 1979. Two years later, Ali Khamenei became Iran’s President. He succeeded Khomeini as Supreme Leader in 1989. Khamenei turned the theocratic state into a powerful player and an arch foe of US and Israel, setting up a network of proxies across the region — The Axis of Resistance. Under his watch, the Iranian regime became more powerful than ever, with indigenous technology and a muscle-flexing military in the form of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The US responded with sanctions that triggered widespread economic distress. Internally, Khamenei ruthlessly crushed dissent, be it from the political opposition, civil society or the common people. The most recent example of this was seen in December and January, during some of Iran’s biggest protests. A month later, as Khamenei lay dead, Iranian streets reflected contrasting images. Social media posts showed celebrations in Isfahan, Tehran and Shiraz. And state-run TV displayed visuals of mourning crowds. What happens now in Iran? Besides Khamenei and some members of his family, including his daughter, son-in-law and grandson, senior members of the Iranian regime have also been killed. The state-run IRNA news agency announced the death of Maj Gen Mohammad Pakpour, who took over as the IRGC’s top commander after Israel killed its previous commander in the 12-Day War last June. Also killed was Ali Shamkhani, who has long been a top security adviser to Khamenei, IRNA said. But replacing Khamenei is something the regime has been preparing for for years, amid reports of the leader’s frail health. For Iran, there are three possible scenarios — continuity in the regime, a military takeover, and a collapse of the regime, according to Suzanne Maloney of Brookings in a Council on Foreign Relations report. The regime is already taking steps to ensure the first scenario goes through. An 88-member body of clerics, the Assembly of Experts, will pick Khamenei’s successor. Until it chooses a name, the regime has announced a temporary council including the President that will oversee the transition. The contenders After the death of the top contender, President Ebrahim Raisi, in a May 2024 chopper accident, Khamenei had reportedly named three clerics as possible successors. Their names have never been made public, but speculation in the Iranian policy and media has identified some possible figures: • Hojjat-ol-Eslam Mohsen Qomi, a key adviser in Khamenei’s office; • Ayatollah Mohsen Araki, a long-time member of the Assembly of Experts; • Ayatollah Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of Iran’s judiciary; • Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, the Qom Friday prayer leader. As can be seen from their positions and titles, they are all Khamenei loyalists who have worked with and under the supervision of the former Supreme Leader. Except for Chief Justice Ejei, none of them have held any top administrative jobs. All of them are in their 60s, unlike Khamenei who became the Supreme Leader at 50. Maloney says there is also some thought and discussion in the Iranian leadership about collective leadership, an idea that did not find favour during Khamenei’s time. This is also informed by Khamenei’s own experience of a difficult relationship with then President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in his early years as the Supreme leader. Another candidate in the mix is Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder, as he had stepped in for Khamenei at an important event. Is a military takeover possible? In the three scenarios outlined above, the second one is a possible military takeover. The IRGC has emerged as the lynchpin for protecting the interests of the regime. The Revolutionary Guard, along with the Basij paramilitary, has been instrumental in putting down protests against the regime. Appointing a figure associated with the Iranian military could be a compelling option to keep the house in order and ensure the regime’s survival. In that case, Ali Larijani, the Secretary of the National Security Council, is a possible contender. He was Speaker of the Parliament and a key confidante of Khamenei. He had visited India more than a decade ago. Larijani has articulated the regime’s language of “revenge”, vowing that Iranian forces will fight even harder on Sunday. Larijani, however, added that there would be continuity of governance. An IRGC takeover would be a formal shakedown of the arrangement that had existed since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. This will be a replication of what some other countries in the region have practiced — Pakistan, which is shadow-controlled by the military, or Egypt, which has a former Army chief as the President in civilian clothes. But, IRGC’s credibility has also taken a hit, as it has not been able to protect and shield its assets and top leadership through conventional means. ## Is regime change possible? This brings us to the third scenario of a regime collapse — a key objective outlined by the Donald Trump administration, and gleefully anticipated by the Israeli leadership. “This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country,” Trump has said. But while bombing targets from 30,000 feet is easy, toppling a regime is not — especially in a country with a huge landmass. Iran is almost half of India’s size but has 1/15th of its population. For the common people to overpower the Iranian military, the IRGC and the Basij, they will need arms as well as logistical support on the ground. That would mean setting up a massive supply of weapons and logistics — and deploying boots on the ground. This is a strategic and political call that Trump has to take, while balancing the demands of his MAGA base. Even if the regime collapses, the US will have to come up with a plan to have someone to lead the new regime. For that, they would need someone who is acceptable to the regime — either a breakaway faction from the Iranian military or clergy or a mix of both. An external player, like the exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, is an unlikely choice and lacks legitimacy. The tensions in the region Iran has attacked US bases in at least six countries — Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The Iranians are also targeting some civilian areas in the UAE where they believe American soldiers and officials live and work. The widening of the theatre of conflict has plunged the Gulf and the Middle East into uncertainty. So high have tensions been that even Saudi Arabia and the UAE appear to be putting aside months of strain. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Saturday pledged support to UAE’s ruler Mohamed bin Zayed. There are also reports suggesting that Trump was persuaded to target Iran’s regime and the top brass, by two unlikely allies — Israel and Saudi Arabia. The fact that the Iranian Supreme leader’s whereabouts and confirmation of his death came in quickly couldn’t have happened without on-ground complicity from Tehran. That could mean that the regional players have had some role or moles in the Iranian system. So far, Iran has carefully targeted military bases and civilian areas to intimidate regional partners who have given space to American military equipment and personnel. For Tehran, the best case scenario is dragging out the war for days and weeks, and then hope that the regional players come together for a ceasefire. The regional rivals would not want to jeopardise the security of their own population because of the attacks by Tehran. The consequences for the world Iran’s most effective weapon is not even a weapon. It has closed down the Strait of Hormuz, a 21-km wide chokepoint through which about 20% of the global oil supply passes. This would jeopardise the energy security of many countries across the world that depend on the Gulf and the Middle East. Now, American fleets may find themselves forced to unblock the strait. This conflict has been brewing for decades, but a full-scale war and an unstable Iran is a situation no country in the world is prepared for. Europe has been at war for more than four years now, and the Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre has also been active with attacks and counter-attacks. In such a scenario, the war in the Middle East has strategic consequences for the world, as countries like the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain have more foreign nationals and expats than their local population. ## Impact on India India has about nine million diaspora spread across the Gulf and Middle East region. Their safety and welfare has been the cornerstone of India’s diaspora diplomacy in the last three decades, when the population of the Indian community in these countries have grown. These blue-collar workers are the sole breadwinners for many families in Kerala, UP, Bengal, Bihar, and Odisha — and are the biggest remittance senders to India. Estimates suggest that over a third of India’s remittances comes from the Middle East and the Gulf countries — the number is somewhere around 38% of India’s remittances. The other strategic impact is the blow to India’s energy security that can be the casualty of a prolonged conflict — as almost 60% of India’s energy imports come from the region, which include about 50% of oil imports and 70% of LNG imports. Any disruption in the energy supply chain would be catastrophic for India’s economy, especially at a time when India has been barred from buying oil from Russia, under threat of Trump tariffs. This puts India in a diplomatically and economically difficult, if not precarious, situation. India would also have to think of a plan B after the Iranian leader’s killing by the US — as it would have invested in the political landscape in the new cast of characters that might emerge. India has had a long, historical relationship, and has strategic ties with most of them across the aisle, and Delhi’s diplomatic abilities will be tested in such an uncharted territory as it navigates the current turmoil. Shubhajit Roy, Diplomatic Editor at The Indian Express, has been a journalist for more than 25 years now. Roy joined The Indian Express in October 2003 and has been reporting on foreign affairs for more than 17 years now. Based in Delhi, he has also led the National government and political bureau at The Indian Express in Delhi — a team of reporters who cover the national government and politics for the newspaper. He has got the Ramnath Goenka Journalism award for Excellence in Journalism ‘2016. He got this award for his coverage of the Holey Bakery attack in Dhaka and its aftermath. He also got the IIMCAA Award for the Journalist of the Year, 2022, (Jury’s special mention) for his coverage of the fall of Kabul in August 2021 — he was one of the few Indian journalists in Kabul and the only mainstream newspaper to have covered the Taliban’s capture of power in mid-August, 2021. ... Read More