War has reached India’s shores, strategic silence isn’t an option

The US and Israel launched a joint military strike on Iran with the explicit aim of enabling regime change and taking control of hydrocarbon resources through a hand-picked ruler. The larger aim is to obtain a hegemonic influence in West Asia. Though the US has succeeded in eliminating Tehran’s top political and military leadership, achieving its political objectives remains as elusive as ever. The regime endures and resistance persists. Apparently, the US is getting ensnared in a prolonged military conflict in West Asia. A hasty retreat will not serve its purpose, while a protracted engagement will entail high political and military costs.

America and Israel intervened because Iran appeared most vulnerable now. Internally, protests were brewing, while external networks were debilitated. Tehran’s key security ally, Moscow, is helpless because of its war with Ukraine; Beijing will not sacrifice its commercial interests with Washington; Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis have been decimated; and for the Global South, Iran is not indispensable. In a world where the leading powers prefer neutrality and strategic silence, the hegemon is writing the new rules of the game.

Iran was the lone roadblock to a long-cherished American goal of controlling West Asia. Other states in the region are feeble, compromised, and have outsourced their security to the US. Washington believes that the fall of the Iranian regime would make it the region’s sole arbiter. It can stop Russia and China from expanding their influence in the region, and control the flow of oil and gas to other countries. However, it is more likely that the collapse of the regime, though not imminent, will unleash forces beyond anyone’s control. It will give rise to radical, extremist and secessionist forces, as witnessed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. The terrorist group Islamic State emerged due to political instability and chaos in Iraq. In Afghanistan, the US spent nearly $2.3 trillion and remained engaged for 20 years, yet the Taliban came back to power. In Syria, Trump recognised a former terrorist leader as the legitimate ruler. The records of US interventions in the region are disappointing and that is the reason nearly 60 per cent of American voters disapprove of Trump’s military action in Iran.

The joint military attack was launched on the pretext of curbing Iran’s nuclear capacity. But this was nothing but a deception. Iran was cooperating in the Nuclear Deal finalised during the Obama Administration in 2015. The Trump administration arbitrarily withdrew from it in 2018. Even at the recent Geneva negotiations of February 2026, Iran had agreed to halt uranium enrichment. The negotiating parties reported significant progress. But the US-Israel launched aerial strikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and others.

In retaliation, Iran launched aerial strikes on American bases in as many as 12 countries. Its strategy is to widen the conflict to overstretch US resources and increase the economic and political costs for American allies. As an extension of this strategy, Tehran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil and gas supplies. The Brent crude oil price has reached $90 a barrel from the pre-war price of $65, and the gas price has also risen considerably. Therefore, the war has an impact across the world. Inflation and slowdown of the global economy will impact everyone.

The war reached the Indian shore when an Iranian warship, IRIS Dena, was sunk by a US submarine near Sri Lanka’s coast. The ship was returning after participation in an Indian naval exercise. Many strategic thinkers believe that the US disregarded India’s concerns, and urged the government to lodge a diplomatic protest.

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For New Delhi, the immediate concerns are ensuring the safe return of its people stuck in the region and securing an unhindered supply of oil, gas and fertiliser. However, as a long-term strategy, it should consider developing mechanisms to facilitate dialogue and cessation of conflict in collaboration with BRICS and other European countries. Strategic silence may not be an effective strategy for wars in the neighbourhood. India’s policy of multi-alignment will acquire a new philosophy if it engages proactively in facilitating the resolution of multiple conflicts the world over.

*The writer is professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi*