UPSC EDITORIAL ANALYSIS : India’s demographic journey of hits and misses
Kartavya Desk Staff
Source: The Hindu
• Prelims: Current events of national importance(total fertility rate (TFR), NFHS, Population bill, Fertility rate, Mortality, TFR, NFHS, SDGs etc)
• Mains GS Paper I & II: Social empowerment, development and management of social sectors/services related to Health.
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
• World Population day is observed on July 11
• The United Nations in 1989 established the day after K.C. Zachariah(demographer) proposed the concept of a ‘World Population Day’. The world population had touched 5 billion in 1987
• The world population had touched 5 billion in 1987
INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE
Context
Background of Population control:
• India was among the first nations to address its population problem in 1951.
• In 1950: TFR was at around 9(five point nine)% and is now 2% (fifth round of the National Family Health Survey, or NFHS).
• There was a steep decline after the 1970s:Indicating an inversely proportional relationship between economic prosperity and the fertility rate.
#### India’s population dynamics
#### ● Fertility, mortality, and migration play a pivotal role in shaping India’s demographic landscape.
#### ● National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5: India’s total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 3.4 to 2 between 1992 and 2021
#### ○ dropping below the replacement level of 2.1.
#### ● There has been a significant drop in the mortality rate as well.
#### ● The average life expectancy of Indians has also increased over time.
#### ● According to the 2011 Census, individuals aged 60 years and above constituted 8.6% of the total population.
#### ○ The figure is projected to rise up to 19.5% by 2050.
What changing dynamics signify?
• The reduction in fertility signifies a transition toward smaller family norms. This can reduce the proportion of the dependent population and result in a demographic dividend A period where the working-age population is larger than the dependent population.
• This can reduce the proportion of the dependent population and result in a demographic dividend
• A period where the working-age population is larger than the dependent population.
• India can harness the potential of its young workforce by creating employment.
• The decline in mortality and increase in life expectancy are reflections of a robust health-care system and increased living standards.
Issues associated:
• The issue of population ageing: It requires a long-term plan — focusing on geriatric care and providing social security benefits.
• Migration and urbanization are critical issues. Rapid rural to urban migration is posing a threat to the existing urban infrastructure.
• Rapid rural to urban migration is posing a threat to the existing urban infrastructure.
• Gender equality: Women labor force participation is straggling A notable absence from political representation Unending plight within society
• A notable absence from political representation
• Unending plight within society
#### The country’s SDG journey:
#### ● ‘No Poverty, Zero Hunger and Good Health’ are the three most important SDGs which form the core of ‘development’.
#### ● The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 48% to 10% between 1990 and 2019.
#### ● The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA)(2006) played a critical role in addressing rural poverty.
#### ● The Janani Suraksha Yojana of 2005: It provides cash benefits to pregnant women — not only accentuated institutional deliveries but also saved poor families from hefty health expenditures.
#### ● Green Revolution, India became self-sufficient in crop production and averted a catastrophe.
#### ● The proportion of the population suffering from hunger reduced from 18.3% in 2001 to 16.6% in 2021.
#### ○ India contributes a third of the global burden of malnutrition.
#### ● Prime Minister’s Overarching Scheme for. Holistic Nourishment (POSHAN) Abhiyaan 2018: It requires a miracle to fulfill the target of ‘Zero Hunger’ by 2030.
#### ● Health: All the critical mortality indicators have seen steady declines.
#### ○ The Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) decreased from 384.4 in 2000 to 102.7 in 2020.
#### ○ The mortality rate for children under five reduced significantly post 2000s.
#### ○ The infant mortality rate reduced from 66.7 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 25.5 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2021.
Issues associated:
• According to Oxfam, the top 10% of India’s population holds 77% of the national wealth.
• Absolute growth in GDP numbers where the top 1% holds 40% of the total wealth.
• In the Global Hunger Index (2023), India’s rank was 111 out of 125
• In terms of nutrition, stunting, wasting and underweight among children below five years and anemia among women pose serious challenges.
• India’s epidemiological trajectory shows that the country has a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCD).
Fertility rate:
• The fertility rate at a given age is the number of children born alive to women of that age during the year as a proportion of the average annual population of women of the same age
Total fertility rate (TFR):
• It refers to the total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility in the population.
India’s Population Issues:
Way Forward
• With six years in hand to meet the targets, India’s road to 2030 crosses the path with its population dynamics. Population issues such as gender equality and socio-cultural divides cannot be ignored in the journey to achieve SDGs.
• Population issues such as gender equality and socio-cultural divides cannot be ignored in the journey to achieve SDGs.
• With a thorough understanding that India will be able to achieve a ‘development’ which is sustainable in its truest sense.
• For India to achieve the SDGs, the changing population dynamics has to be acknowledged while forming policies.
• India needs to address income inequality, harness its demographic dividend by creating job opportunities for the youth of India and address changing health needs.
• NCDs, which incur high out-of-pocket expenditures, are catastrophic for some families. India needs a stronger safety net to save these families from slipping into utter poverty.
• India needs a stronger safety net to save these families from slipping into utter poverty.
• The nutrition scenario should be set right by strengthening programmes. This will require an increase in budgetary allocation for the health and nutrition sectors.
• This will require an increase in budgetary allocation for the health and nutrition sectors.
• A gender equal approach and empowerment of vulnerable women can solve most issues and propel India’s progress in the SDGs.
• India’s progress in SDGs is directly proportional to the well-being of its population and the route to progress lies in a better understanding of its population dynamics and addressing the issues.
QUESTION FOR PRACTICE
• Despite Consistent experience of high growth, India still goes with the lowest indicators of human development. Examine the issues that make balanced and inclusive development elusive. (UPSC 2021)
(200 WORDS, 10 MARKS)
Editorial Analysis – 11 July 2024 [PDF]