The UDF’s ray of hope in an uphill battle in Kerala

The local body elections held in Kerala last December have breathed new life into the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which has struggled to reclaim power from the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)]-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) following the latter’s unprecedented victories in consecutive State Assembly elections. The UDF garnered 38.81% of the vote, compared with the LDF’s 33.45% and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s 14.76%. Others (minor parties, independents backed by rival fronts, and rebels) got 13.03%. The Congress alone secured 29.17%, ahead of the CPI(M)’s 27.16%. Buoyed by this two-percentage-point lead, the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee convened a Lakshya Leadership Summit in Wayanad on January 4-5. The summit focused on unity, discipline, and a target of over 100 out of 140 seats in the 2026 Assembly elections. Key strategies include early candidate selection with a 50% quota for women and youth, and a focus on winnability, overseen by the Central Screening Committee chaired by All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary Madhusudan Mistry. The Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, V.D. Satheesan, unveiled ‘Mission 2026’, a campaign that includes a State-wide yatra beginning February and the division of Kerala into three strategic campaign regions. The party has emphasised strengthening its social media presence and focusing on governance solutions in the economy, and in health and agriculture, apart from expanding its alliances beyond traditional bases. In New Delhi, AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge and the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, will preside over a strategy session. This will be followed by a ‘mahapanchayat’ in Kochi on January 19, bringing together newly elected local body representatives and marking the campaign’s unofficial launch. While the prospects seem favourable for the Congress, which has been out of power for a decade in Kerala, Assembly elections demand a different playbook compared to local body polls. The Congress will struggle to sustain anti-incumbency momentum amid ongoing internal rivalries — multiple leaders are vying for the Chief Minister’s post in the event of the UDF coming to power. Many believe that the Congress leadership has been unable to rebut the CPI(M)’s allegations about its proximity to Jamaat-e-Islami Hind. The Indian Union Muslim League, the Congress’s largest and most organised ally, is demanding greater electoral space. This comes at a time when the Congress is trying to woo back the Kerala Congress(M), which defected to the LDF before the 2021 Assembly polls. The Congress can only counter the LDF’s bid for a third term with a carefully crafted pro-incumbency narrative, especially since the LDF has been showcasing large-scale development projects under the Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board, celebrating the State’s achievement in eradicating extreme poverty, and unveiling a range of welfare schemes. The most unpredictable factor is the emergence of the NDA as a third force. The BJP’s victory in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation polls showed its meticulously designed electoral strategy. The BJP is now targeting specific Assembly segments in the Thiruvananthapuram and Alappuzha districts; and reaching out to the Christian community to win seats in Thrissur. The party is now focusing on seats it can win. More critically, it is keen to defeat the Congress and its allies rather than facilitate their return to power by splitting votes, as was the case in the past. The Congress’s path to power is therefore fraught with obstacles. The local body results, while encouraging, may prove a false dawn. What Kerala’s electorate rewards in local body polls, which are often based on hyper-local issues, does not automatically translate to Assembly preferences. Governance track records, alliance arithmetic, and leadership credibility carry greater weight. The Congress leadership must be aware that the CPI(M)’s organisational machinery, as seen in the party’s vote share, remains intact. The CPI(M) could bounce back from its electoral setback. Unless the Congress can swiftly resolve its internal discord, present a unified leadership face, and put forth an alternative vision beyond merely riding the anti-incumbency sentiment, it risks squandering what may be its best opportunity in a decade to return to power in Kerala. Published - January 14, 2026 12:31 am IST ### Related Topics Kerala / state politics / United Democratic Front / Left Democratic Front / Indian National Congress / Communist Party of India -Marxist