The approaching AI surge, its global consequences

If there is a single technology that promises to unravel the present and usher in a new era, the bet would be on Artificial Intelligence (AI). At the very least, AI is set to effect a transformation that is comparable to any previous revolution, not excluding the Industrial Revolution. Impressive Large Language Models (LLMs) are already rolling out faster than one would have imagined possible. Rivalry between the United States and China in this area has become intense and the success of recent Chinese models is having a catalytic effect on the AI industry as a whole. This is, however, only the beginning. All this has special relevance to a world which Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, described in his address to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos (in January this year), as follows: “... We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited”. Mr. Carney did not, however, touch on potentially the greatest disruptor of all, viz., AI, or refer to the baneful/beneficial influence of AI which is already beginning to impact today’s world. When he talked of great power rivalry, and that countries in between have a choice, there was no mention of AI and what impact it would have on today’s world, and more so in the future. #### Face the reality World leaders must, however, wake up to this new reality, and come to terms with a phenomenon in which Open AI is beginning to consume the world. There is little realisation that the transformation that is taking place is almost certain to turn the world upside down. When Mr. Carney stated that ‘we are in the midst of a rupture and not a transition’, he did not have in mind — and probably realised even less — that it is the advent of AI, rather than other aspects, that is likely to herald the collapse of the international order as we know it. ## Related Stories • How to start building a career in the age of AI How to start building a career in the age of AI • When AI can write code: Students rethink learning, exams, and careers When AI can write code: Students rethink learning, exams, and careers • Voice-first AI systems in native languages to make large populations digitally inclusive: Economic Survey Voice-first AI systems in native languages to make large populations digitally inclusive: Economic Survey • Why AI infrastructure matters more Why AI infrastructure matters more Few leaders currently understand the extent of the threat posed by AI to the world as we know it. Some industry leaders such as Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella have pointed out that AI was already being used as tools of diplomacy and state-craft, and that nations require to build resilience and sovereign stacks. AI did figure in discussions at the WEF, but the contents of the debate hardly mirrored the dangers arising from unchecked AI. A great deal of the debate turned on how countries were placed to exploit this new phenomenon, with Union Minister for Electronics and Information Technology, Ashwini Vaishnaw taking time off to rebut the presumption that India was a secondary AI power. Industry leaders, no doubt, increasingly see AI as a strategic enabler, given that digital transformation is helping to reshape competitiveness across different sectors — from fintech to health care. Additionally, there is some realisation that AI’s potential extends to other sectors as well. The judicial fraternity, for one, however, believes that there is a need to be more cautious about the use of AI in court proceedings, and that excessive reliance on AI in court rooms could lead to misjudgment. They point to the dangers of ‘hallucinations’ which could lead to improper citations and fabricated judgments. #### Marching ahead across domains All this, however, is but a precursor to what the real potential and danger posed by AI in the world of tomorrow are. As AI proliferates globally, it is already becoming evident that few technologies have the potential to exert the same degree of influence in terms of enhancing information flows, surveillance capabilities, revolutionising of communications, empowering analytical frameworks and the military-industrial segment. No other area of technology seems to have such a profound impact on existing civilisational networks. In this sense, AI portends a breaching of certain limits that had existed since the Second World War and the overweening threat posed by technology and its utilisation in different domains. What is noteworthy is that AI operates at granular levels — and that the technology itself is undergoing a phased transition. In its present form, AI is already enabling the replication of speech and language, vision and reasoning, but what is little realised is that it is set to achieve new and dangerous heights of capabilities. This is specially so in regard to military and defence applications, for as AI becomes increasingly militarised, warfare itself is bound to — and is already undergoing — a paradigm shift from man to unmanned platforms, and from dependence on human-controlled systems to autonomous ones, that are capable of making their own decisions. Even as AI is set to become all pervasive, its transformative impact on warfare, especially in the area of the evolution of weapon systems, is what is most worrisome. AI has made possible the deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles that are capable of autonomous flight. AI-driven cyber weapons and uncrewed ground vehicles equipped with intelligent navigation and targeting capabilities are already a reality. Both represent a paradigm shift in redefining combat, and employing operations across multiple systems without direct human intervention. As of today, AI offers unprecedented opportunities for the enhanced automation of operational decisions in areas of conflict, and of transforming battlefield dynamics. Already, the portrayal of Ukrainian soldiers wearing night vision goggles, riding ‘Quad bikes’ to protect the capital city of Kiev, and launching ‘jerry-rigged drones’ equipped with small explosives, has become the defining image of future conflicts. Ukraine’s success in checking and keeping at bay the mighty Russian Army in the first wave of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, employing the latest AI technology, marks the most fundamental change in tactics of warfare since the advent of tanks at the end of the First World War. Ukraine’s response has demonstrated the value of ‘coming age technology’, and how their skilful use could undermine conventional military capabilities. It is the hugely asymmetric impact that AI commands, that is both its strength and its danger portent. Though this is not being openly mentioned or touted, the reality is that it represents a colossal transfer of power from the traditional military to others, who have the capacity to develop and utilise AI devices. The real danger is that AI could very soon eclipse the smartest individuals, and nobody can or will know, when they become autonomous, and totally out of human control. The dystopian impact of a powerful set of technologies which are not under the control of a human body or entity, and of self-sustaining technology, portrays a doomsday scenario. The beginnings of this are already evident, and are set to escalate enormously to the next levels of the concentration of power. There are unlimited possibilities in the doomsday scenario of autonomous drone swarms unleashing attacks on crowds, killing hundreds, if not, thousands. Both the military and security establishments would seek to equip themselves with such devices in a few years. AI would then be well set to become the greatest force amplifier in history. Its impact could range from wars and accidents, to random terror groups, to counter-revolutionary forces, and the like. The blunt truth is that nobody knows when, if how, AI might overtake or eclipse humans, and become an autonomous force for good or evil. It is also becoming evident that, apart from the battlefield, AI is now becoming an instrument of immense value in different spheres of human activity including diplomacy and intelligence. In that sense, it is no longer merely a tool. Concerns that technologies such as AI would outpace institutions meant to govern them are real, but the most spectacular demonstration of AI is as yet on the battlefield — as seen across western Europe and West Asia. In both sectors, space, cyber and electronic warfare capacities have been woven together to completely transform the nature of warfare itself. #### Need for effective oversight The obiter dictum — given that AI enables rapid data processing and predictive analysis, and also provides opportunities for a variety of options, including crisis response, conflict prevention, and conflict resolution — is that humankind must develop a set of checks and balances to prevent AI from ‘running away with the bit in its mouth’. Scientists, political leaders and others must come together to understand the implications of runaway AI technologies and decide how to keep them under control and in a manner that they benefit, rather than become a threat to, humankind. M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal Published - February 11, 2026 12:16 am IST ### Related Topics technology (general) / Artificial Intelligence / USA / China / Canada / summit / diplomacy / India / finance (general) / health / judiciary (system of justice) / court administration / defence / war / history / defence equipment / Russia-Ukraine Crisis / espionage and intelligence / space programme