SIPRI Yearbook 2025
Kartavya Desk Staff
Syllabus: National Security
Source: BT
Context: The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 revealed that India now possesses more nuclear warheads than Pakistan, but significantly fewer than China.
• The report warns of an emerging global nuclear arms race amid weakened arms control regimes.
About SIPRI Yearbook 2025:
India’s Status in SIPRI Yearbook 2025:
• Total Warheads: India has 180 stored nuclear warheads as of January 2025.
• Modernization: India continues to develop new nuclear delivery systems, including canisterised missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads.
• Triad Development: India’s nuclear capability is structured into a mature nuclear triad—land-based missiles, aircraft, and sea-based submarines (SSBNs).
• Strategic Shift: Indications suggest a move toward mating warheads with launchers in peacetime, changing India’s traditional de-alerted posture.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Capability:
• Total Warheads: Estimated at 170 warheads as of January 2025.
• Trends: Pakistan is expanding fissile material production and developing new delivery systems, with the arsenal likely to grow this decade.
• Primary Focus: Pakistan’s nuclear strategy remains cantered on deterring India, with emphasis on short-range tactical weapons.
China’s Expanding Arsenal:
• Total Warheads: China has 600 nuclear warheads, growing at ~100 per year since 2023.
• ICBM Silos: Around 350 new ICBM silos developed across desert and mountain bases.
• Shift in Posture: China may now keep warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime, departing from past practices.
Global Trends in Nuclear Forces:
• Total Global Inventory: 12,241 nuclear warheads globally and ~9,614 in military stockpiles.
• Top Powers: Russia (5,459) and USA (5,177) hold over 90% of global warheads.
• Deployment Rate: Around 2,100 warheads are in high operational alert states.
• Modernization Across Board: All 9 nuclear powers—including UK, France, Israel, and North Korea—are actively upgrading or expanding their arsenals.
• Arms Control Crisis: The New START treaty expires in 2026, with no successor in sight, risking unregulated nuclear growth.
Rising Risk of Nuclear Conflict:
• Regional Flashpoints: Early 2025 saw India-Pakistan tensions over Operation Sindoor, risking escalation due to strikes on nuclear-linked sites.
• Technology Multipliers: Use of AI, cyberwarfare, quantum systems, and space assets is making nuclear deterrence more fragile and unpredictable.
• Escalation Risk: Disinformation and compressed decision-making timelines increase chances of miscalculation or accidental conflict.
• Misinformation Warfare: The spread of disinformation and propaganda during conflicts can distort threat perceptions.
Policy Implications:
• India’s Defence Posture: Must balance deterrence and restraint, avoiding crisis instability while modernizing delivery systems.
• Need for Dialogue: Reviving arms control talks and regional nuclear risk reduction measures is urgent amid global mistrust.
• Strategic Autonomy: India should enhance indigenous technological capabilities to reduce dependency and maintain credible minimum deterrence.
• Global Governance Role: India, as a responsible nuclear power, should actively engage in non-proliferation and disarmament forums.
Conclusion:
The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 signals an alarming return to nuclear arms build-up amidst weakening control frameworks. India’s measured but firm modernization must go hand-in-hand with global advocacy for nuclear restraint and multilateral security dialogue. Nuclear security today is no longer about numbers alone—but about speed, misinformation, and emerging tech risks.
• The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by our adversaries across the borders. to ferry arms / ammunitions, drugs, etc., is a serious threat to the internal security. Comment on the measures being taken to tackle this threat. (2023)