Post-Ukraine, nuclear proliferation appears to be a rational choice for smaller states. Critically examine.
Kartavya Desk Staff
Topic: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
Topic: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
Q4. Post-Ukraine, nuclear proliferation appears to be a rational choice for smaller states. Critically examine. (10 M)
Difficulty Level: Medium
Reference: IE
Why the question: The fact that the invasion of Ukraine happened at all was a profound failure, not of Ukraine but of the international community, which failed to uphold its security guarantees to a country that had willingly given up its nuclear arsenal. Key demand of the question: The question demands an analysis of whether nuclear proliferation has become a rational choice for smaller states post-Ukraine, requiring arguments both in favor and against, while critically assessing the overall impact. Structure of the Answer: Introduction: Briefly mention how the Russia-Ukraine war has altered global security perceptions, especially regarding nuclear deterrence and non-proliferation commitments. Body: Supporting nuclear proliferation: Discuss the failure of security assurances, strategic deterrence benefits, shifting global power structures, weakening of non-proliferation regimes, and selective security commitments by major powers. Against nuclear proliferation: Highlight economic and technological challenges, risks of escalation, diplomatic isolation, violation of international commitments, and the threat of nuclear proliferation to non-state actors. Conclusion: Provide a balanced view, acknowledging the risks of proliferation while emphasizing the need for strengthened international security mechanisms and arms control agreements.
Why the question:
The fact that the invasion of Ukraine happened at all was a profound failure, not of Ukraine but of the international community, which failed to uphold its security guarantees to a country that had willingly given up its nuclear arsenal.
Key demand of the question:
The question demands an analysis of whether nuclear proliferation has become a rational choice for smaller states post-Ukraine, requiring arguments both in favor and against, while critically assessing the overall impact.
Structure of the Answer:
Introduction:
Briefly mention how the Russia-Ukraine war has altered global security perceptions, especially regarding nuclear deterrence and non-proliferation commitments.
• Supporting nuclear proliferation: Discuss the failure of security assurances, strategic deterrence benefits, shifting global power structures, weakening of non-proliferation regimes, and selective security commitments by major powers.
• Against nuclear proliferation: Highlight economic and technological challenges, risks of escalation, diplomatic isolation, violation of international commitments, and the threat of nuclear proliferation to non-state actors.
Conclusion:
Provide a balanced view, acknowledging the risks of proliferation while emphasizing the need for strengthened international security mechanisms and arms control agreements.