‘Not the automatic choice anymore’: Why Indian students are moving away from US universities?

As immigration rules tighten, visa scrutiny intensifies and post-study work pathways become uncertain, the Indian student interest both in the United States of America and Canada have witnessed a decline. QS Data accessed by The Indian Express tracking Indian outbound student mobility shows that while enrolments in the US and Canada continued to grow until 2024–25, momentum has slowed sharply. These shifts coincide with growing anxieties around F-1 visa oversight, H-1B lottery uncertainty, hiring freezes, and a cooling global job market, prompting Indian families to reassess long-held assumptions about “safe” study destinations. Also read | ‘Indian students aren’t abandoning US; they’re recalibrating’: TOEFL chief dismisses rumours of ETS selling testing business Indian student numbers in the US more than double between 2021 and their peak in 2024 (+149%), before slipping 6% in 2025, indicating early signs of slowdown. Canada peaks earlier, in 2023, recording a 42% increase from 2021, but then declines 8% by 2025. From 2026 onwards, QS projects a sustained decline: Indian student numbers are projected to fall 26% in the US and 23% in Canada between 2025 and 2030. In contrast, projected growth in alternative destinations is steep. Germany is forecast to grow 82% between 2025 and 2030, while Ireland is projected to rise 79%, France 116%, and the UAE 77% over the same period. The UK (+31%) and Australia (+17%) are expected to grow more moderately. These changing student preferences may also have deeper implications for global higher education rankings. With research funding cuts, immigration uncertainty for academics, and concerns about long-term talent retention in the US, there are questions about whether American universities can maintain their long-standing dominance in global league tables. Read | Student Visas And Immigration 2026: Why the US, UK, Canada, Australia are cutting permits and raising fees this year Jessica Turner, Chief Executive Officer of QS Quacquarelli Symonds told The Indian Express that sustained policy and funding pressures could eventually impact universities’ research output, citations and academic reputation. The Indian Express spoke to Turner on the sidelines of the QS Summit in Goa about declining student interest in traditional destinations, the rise of newer study markets, and whether the US risks losing its central place in global higher education: Q: This is a crucial moment for Indian students looking at international education. Have you seen changes in where international students, especially Indians who would traditionally pursue F-1 visas for the US are now looking to study? Historically, we talked about the ‘big four’ destinations: the US, Canada, Australia and the UK. Now we’re talking about the ‘big 14’, with 10 additional countries actively competing for international students. And we’ve seen that in our traffic to our websites and where people are looking for universities. We’ve seen the interest shifting from the US to other countries. We’ve seen that in the student events that we hold and the universities that students want to look at. While this trend has been building for years, 2025 is when we clearly saw students opening up to more markets, many of which have strong universities. Countries like Germany, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Netherlands and Scandinavia are now firmly on students’ radar. Q: What does this shift mean for universities in traditional destinations like the US, UK, Canada and Australia? It means they will have to work harder to attract Indian students. Recent global events have changed perceptions, and students now realise that studying in the US is no longer the automatic choice it once was. Q: Under the Trump 2.0 administration, the US has cut federal funding for academic research for various universities. Would this affect their university rankings? Yes. We’ve seen some flight of academics out of the US, and over time that will affect research output and citations. We won’t see the impact immediately, it’s gradual, but over a sustained period it matters. It also weakens the stranglehold US universities have traditionally had on the global top 50 and top 100. Over time, this could lead to a changing of the guard among highly ranked institutions. Q: Could this affect Ivy League universities as well? They will remain great institutions, but they may see a slower trajectory rather than continuing at the same level. At the same time, universities in China and the Middle East are investing heavily in research and talent. The bar for being a top-50 university is rising constantly. Institutions focused on survival rather than forward-looking research will inevitably fall behind. Q: With growing anxiety among Indian students about post-study work options especially the H-1B lottery and long-term stay, what has changed in the current environment? What’s changed is that students now have far more options. A student in India who may have grown up thinking the US was the default destination is now questioning whether this is the right time, given geopolitics and policy uncertainty. At the same time, many universities in places like Germany, Hong Kong, Malaysia and other countries have spent years building infrastructure to support international students, and they are actively competing for Indian students. Students today have more choice than ever. Rankings remain a useful guide, but they are only one part of the decision. Q: Under the current circumstances of a cooling US job market are rankings still reflecting student reality or are they lagging behind? I think the QS rankings are really trying to reflect the experience that a student has in international education, particularly international students. QS includes a range of metrics in its rankings. Employability, alumni outcomes and employer reputation are important components. Even after two decades of global rankings, QS is the only ranking that embeds employability in this way, and that matters because students are looking for education that helps them create opportunities and pursue their chosen careers. Understanding how effectively a university and course enable that is absolutely vital. So yes, I do think rankings are helping to answer that question for students. Q: You mentioned that employability is a key QS metric. With layoffs, hiring freezes, and visa-linked employment risks, especially for students looking forward to an H-1B sponsorship, how do rankings avoid over-promising? Any ranking is, by nature, a lag indicator. Rankings published this year rely on data collected last year, so they don’t capture short-term fluctuations immediately. What they do reflect is the long-term reputation universities have with employers and the ability of graduates to advance their careers over time. That matters for students’ medium- and long-term outcomes. In the short term, the best protection is skills and experience, choosing a university where students know they will gain what employers are actually looking for.” Q: Beyond rankings, what should students prioritise in a weaker global job market? Rankings are useful for understanding which universities belong in your short list. They indicate research quality, teaching strength, innovation, and institutional standing—something students associate their name with for life. But they are not the only factor. Subject rankings matter, and so do location, cost and personal circumstances. Rankings are best used to narrow options, followed by deeper research. This is a complex and expensive decision, and rankings should be one tool, not the only one. Q: Several Indian institutions including the IITs and, more recently, BITS have withdrawn from global rankings, citing concerns about methodology. How does QS respond? We have made a conscious decision not to allow institutions to opt out. If institutions were removed, others would be artificially inflated. We rank every eligible institution according to our methodology. These rankings are ultimately for students, and that carries responsibility. Rankings collect the collective intelligence of the sector, and they become more accurate when institutions engage. Our methodology is less dependent on self-submissions than others, because rankings are inherently reductionist. Universities are complex and cannot be reduced to one number, but benchmarking exists in every global industry and has driven quality over time.” Q: Is it mandatory for institutions to submit data every year? “No. Participation is voluntary and collaborative. Institutions can fully engage, partially engage, or not engage at all. Our methodology is designed around a minimum common denominator, so we can benchmark universities with very different capacities. Much of the data we use is publicly available. If a university doesn’t submit data, we use public sources or alternative benchmarks. Either way, institutions are benchmarked each year.” Vidheesha Kuntamalla is a Senior Correspondent at The Indian Express, based in New Delhi. She is known for her investigative reporting on higher education policy, international student immigration, and academic freedom on university campuses. Her work consistently connects policy decisions with lived realities, foregrounding how administrative actions, political pressure, and global shifts affect students, faculty, and institutions. Professional Profile Core Beat: Vidheesha covers education in Delhi and nationally, reporting on major public institutions including the University of Delhi (DU), Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), Jamia Millia Islamia, the IITs, and the IIMs. She also reports extensively on private and government schools in the National Capital Region. Prior to joining The Indian Express, she worked as a freelance journalist in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh for over a year, covering politics, rural issues, women-centric issues, and social justice. Specialisation: She has developed a strong niche in reporting on the Indian student diaspora, particularly the challenges faced by Indian students and H-1B holders in the United States. Her work examines how geopolitical shifts, immigration policy changes, and campus politics impact global education mobility. She has also reported widely on: Mental health crises and student suicides at IITs Policy responses to campus mental health Academic freedom and institutional clampdowns at JNU, South Asian University (SAU), and Delhi University Curriculum and syllabus changes under the National Education Policy Her recent reporting has included deeply reported human stories on policy changes during the Trump administration and their consequences for Indian students and researchers in the US. Reporting Style Vidheesha is recognised for a human-centric approach to policy reporting, combining investigative depth with intimate storytelling. Her work often highlights the anxieties of students and faculty navigating bureaucratic uncertainty, legal precarity, and institutional pressure. She regularly works with court records, internal documents, official data, and disciplinary frameworks to expose structural challenges to academic freedom. Recent Notable Articles (Late 2024 & 2025) 1. Express Investigation Series JNU’s fault lines move from campus to court: University fights students and faculty (November 2025) An Indian Express investigation found that since 2011, JNU has appeared in over 600 cases before the Delhi High Court, filed by the administration, faculty, staff, students, and contractual workers across the tenures of three Vice-Chancellors. JNU’s legal wars with students and faculty pile up under 3 V-Cs | Rs 30-lakh fines chill campus dissent (November 2025) The report traced how steep monetary penalties — now codified in the Chief Proctor’s Office Manual — are reshaping dissent and disciplinary action on campus. 2. International Education & Immigration ‘Free for a day. Then came ICE’: Acquitted after 43 years, Indian-origin man faces deportation — to a country he has never known (October 2025) H-1B $100,000 entry fee explained: Who pays, who’s exempt, and what’s still unclear? (September 2025) Khammam to Dallas, Jhansi to Seattle — audacious journeys in pursuit of the American dream after H-1B visa fee hike (September 2025) What a proposed 15% cap on foreign admissions in the US could mean for Indian students (October 2025) Anxiety on campus after Trump says visas of pro-Palestinian protesters will be cancelled (January 2025) ‘I couldn’t believe it’: F-1 status of some Indian students restored after US reverses abrupt visa terminations (April 2025) 3. Academic Freedom & Policy Exclusive: South Asian University fires professor for ‘inciting students’ during stipend protests (September 2025) Exclusive: Ministry seeks explanation from JNU V-C for skipping Centre’s meet, views absence ‘seriously’ (July 2025) SAU rows after Noam Chomsky mentions PM Modi, Lankan scholar resigns, PhD student exits SAU A series of five stories examining shrinking academic freedom at South Asian University after global scholar Noam Chomsky referenced Prime Minister Narendra Modi during an academic interaction, triggering administrative unease and renewed debate over political speech, surveillance, and institutional autonomy on Indian campuses. 4. Mental Health on Campuses In post-pandemic years, counselling rooms at IITs are busier than ever; IIT-wise data shows why (August 2025) Campus suicides: IIT-Delhi panel flags toxic competition, caste bias, burnout (April 2025) 5. Delhi Schools These Delhi government school grads are now success stories. Here’s what worked — and what didn’t (February 2025) ‘Ma’am… may I share something?’ Growing up online and alone, why Delhi’s teens are reaching out (December 2025) ... Read More