‘No deal needed, US will exit Iran war in 2-3 weeks’: How Trump shifted goalposts in Middle East

Thirty days into a conflict that was supposed to last four to six weeks, the US war objectives in the Iran war have shifted so dramatically that what the Trump administration once threatened to bomb Iran over, it now says isn’t even its problem. Moreover, Trump has now said that the US will exit the Middle East war in two-three weeks, irrespective of whether a deal is reached or not.

The reversal is stark and consequential for every economy on earth that depends on oil.

From victory laps to walking away

When Donald Trump launched ‘Operation Epic Fury’ in late February alongside Israel, his opening salvo was unambiguous. In an 8-minute Truth Social video, Trump said the US had begun “major combat operations in Iran”, vowing to eliminate what he called “imminent threats from the Iranian regime”.

Within days, he was already claiming the mission was effectively done and that the “US had won in the first hour”. As early as March 2, Trump told ABC News it was “an unmitigated success,” saying, “Nobody else could have done this but me.” By March 9, he declared the war would be over “very soon” and that Iran was “all gone.”

On March 11 said: “The US had virtually destroyed ​Iran.” Then came the smug assertion: “We don’t want to leave early?” Trump ​said. “We ​got to ⁠finish the job… We don’t want to go ⁠back ​every two years.”

On March 14, again he said: “We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability… Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated.”

However, what changed the course of the war… and seemingly Trump’s perception of the ground reality as well was this exact Strait of Hormuz problem.

Hormuz — the chokepoint that changed US calculations

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets, carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Tehran moved to shut it down in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes, and the economic pain hit immediately.

The fallout: The average US price of gas crossed $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Globally, Brent crude went past $124 a barrel, compared to pre-war levels around $70.

Trump initially drew a hard line. On Monday, he threatened on Truth Social to blow up Iran’s “Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)” if the Strait wasn’t “immediately ‘Open for Business’.”

Forty-eight hours later, he was on an entirely different tangent.

‘Go get your own oil’: Trump to NATO allies

Trump and his administration now increasingly believe they cannot promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a prerequisite to declaring “mission accomplished”, sources familiar with the discussions told CNN. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told aides he’s willing to end the military campaign against Iran while leaving the Strait largely closed, having concluded that reopening it would push the conflict beyond his four-to-six-week timeline.

Then came the Truth Social post that turned heads worldwide. Trump told allies who couldn’t access fuel: “Go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that reopening the Strait was not a “core objective” of Operation Epic Fury. Time Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed the point at the Pentagon. “This Strait of Hormuz issue is not just a United States of America problem,” Hegseth said. Fortune

‘Iran is begging’ – But no deal in sight

Even as the goalposts shifted, Trump kept insisting Tehran was desperate. In a Truth Social post, he described Iranian negotiators as “very different and ‘strange'”, claiming they had been “militarily obliterated” with “zero chance of a comeback” and were “begging US to make a deal”.

Iran, on multiple occasions, has flatly denied any direct negotiations were underway.

On March 24, Trump told reporters flat out: “We’ve won this war. This war has been won.” Yet simultaneously, his administration was deploying thousands more troops to the region.

Netanyahu’s pipeline workaround

Israel has its own answer. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested in a Newsmax interview that a long-term fix could bypass the Strait entirely. He proposed rerouting Gulf States’ energy pipelines westward across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea and Mediterranean.

While the proposal could work in the long run, it does nothing to address the immediate concerns in the global energy market.

Global oil price fear

In an interaction with Fortune, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that oil could hit $150 and cause a global recession if Iran retains control of the Strait after the war ends. Before the war, more than 100 ships passed through the Strait daily; now just a handful do.

Trump has hinted US troops will leave the Middle East in two to three weeks – but with the Strait still largely closed, Tehran still standing, and NATO allies unwilling to step in, the war’s end remains unclear.

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