Iranian President’death and its impact on Geopolitics

#### GS Paper 2

Syllabus: International Relations

Source: IE

Context: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash raises questions on middle east geopolitics.

About Ebrahim Raisi:

Born December 14, 1960, he rose from a clerical family in Mashhad, Iran, to hold prominent positions in the government, including Tehran’s prosecutor and Iran’s judiciary chief. He ran for presidency in 2017 and won in 2021.

Notably, he strengthened ties with Russia and China while resuming diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. His support for Palestine and alleged involvement in human rights violations drew international attention. As president, he faced criticism for crackdowns on protests and escalated conflicts with Israel and the West.

Iranian Internal Politics:

In Iran, politics has long been defined by a struggle between conservatives (to which Raisi belonged) and reformists since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Conservatives advocate strict adherence to Shi’ite Islam’s principles and view the Revolution as anti-Western imperialism, enjoying support from poorer sectors.

Reformists, while loyal to the Revolution, seek greater flexibility domestically and internationally, advocating for women’s rights, civil society, free elections, and improved relations with the West. Despite economic challenges from sanctions, conservatives have largely retained power, even amidst protests.

Impact of his death:

• Iran’s Political Structure: The President operates under the Supreme Leader’s authority, with upcoming elections within 50 days. Since Iran has a robust public institution, smooth transition is anticipated. Constitutional provisions dictate Mohammad Mokhber, Iran’s First Vice President, assumes the acting presidency.

• Global Implications: Iran’s policies towards South Asia and Arab states are expected to persist. Gold prices surged post-Raisi’s death, reflecting global market concerns.

• Impact on India: Chabahar Port development might slow, affecting global oil markets due to Iran’s significant production. Increased oil prices could impact India’s economy. Potential tensions in West Asia could further influence India, depending on developments.

Different aspects of India-Iran Relations:

Aspect | Details

Historical Relations | Millennia-long interactions, dating back to ancient times. Trade between southern Iran and India through Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea

Political Relations | Friendship treaty signed in 1950; Tehran Declaration (2001) and New Delhi Declaration (2003) set strategic vision; Trilateral Agreement on Trade, Transport, and Transit

Connectivity | MoU signed in 2015 for Shahid Beheshti Port development at Chabahar; Strategic cooperation for Chabahar Port as regional and international hub

Trade Relations | Bilateral trade reached US$2.5 billion in 2022; India among Iran’s top trade partners; Major Indian exports: rice, tea, sugar, pharmaceuticals, electrical machinery, artificial jewelry; Major imports: dry fruits, chemicals, glassware

Cultural Cooperation | Civilizational links foster robust people-to-people ties; Indian Cultural Centre renamed Swami Vivekananda Cultural Centre (SVCC); Farsi included in New Education Policy as classical language

Energy Security | Iran ranks 2nd globally in gas reserves; Iran presents opportunity for fuel diversification, decarbonization, and gas share in India’s energy mix

Strategic Importance (For India) | Strategic location between Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea; Provides alternative connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asian republics; Access to crude oil and natural gas reserves

Strategic Importance (For Iran) | Access to large market for oil sales; Improving trade ties and investment opportunities in India; India can be leveraged for its ties with West as India enjoys good relations with most of the countries.

Areas of Convergence | Engagement with Afghanistan: Potential for common policy with open channels to Taliban; Rebalancing in West Asia: Opportunity to strengthen ties amid regional dynamics

For: Israel-Iran Conflicts: Challenges and Solutions: Click Here

Challenges:

Indo-Iranian ties have faced challenges, including India’s halt of oil imports from Iran due to U.S. sanctions post the Iran nuclear deal revocation in May 2019, impacting India’s energy security. Moreover, India’s close relations with Israel contrast with Iran’s ties with China, underlined by a 25-year strategic partnership agreement. Additionally, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have targeted Saudi Arabia and UAE, both key partners of India. Iran’s criticism of India’s abrogation of Article 370, granting special status to Kashmir, further strained relations.

Way forward:

• Unlocking Bilateral Potential: Strengthening India-Iran ties could unlock vast potential for regional and global cooperation, benefiting both nations.

• Cheaper Crude Oil: Resuming oil imports from Iran could lower crude oil prices globally, benefiting multiple countries and encouraging market stability.

• Connectivity with Eurasia: Enhancing cooperation on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) could significantly reduce transit times for goods between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe, boosting trade.

• Energy Security: Advancing projects like the Iran-Oman-India gas pipeline (IOI) could enhance energy security for India

Conclusion:

Ebrahim Raisi’s tragic death in a helicopter crash is not expected to significantly impact domestic markets unless it triggers geopolitical tensions.

India-Iran should focus on areas of mutual interest and convergence, working together to achieve common goals. India’s assertive diplomacy, emphasizing cooperation with neighbors and friends, presents an opportunity for renewed engagement with Iran and unlocking vast cooperation potential. A reset in relations is timely and promising.

Insta Link:

Gaza conflict: India-Israel Relations

Prelims Link:

Q) What is the importance of developing Chabahar Port by India? (UPSC 2017)

(a) India’s trade with African countries will enormously increase.

(b) India’s relations with oil-producing Arab countries will be strengthened.

(d) Pakistan will facilitate and protect the installation of a gas pipeline between Iraq and India.

Ans: C