India’s Declining Fertility Rate: Opportunities and Challenges Ahead

#### GS Paper 1

Syllabus: Indian Society

Source: IE

Context: India’s declining fertility rate, recently projected by The Lancet, suggests a demographic transition with potential economic benefits.

Status of total fertility rate (TFR):

TFR in India has drastically decreased from 6.2 in 1950 to below 2 in 2021. It is projected to further decline to 1.29 by 2050 and a concerning level of 1.04 by 2100. This decline is part of a global trend, with the global fertility rate dropping nearly 50% in the past 70 years. The United Nations predicts global population growth to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, with TFR converging to near replacement level.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.0 in India signifies stable long-term population trends, with two parents replaced by two children, indicating that the country may not experience population decline for 30-40 years due to a substantial youth population.

About TFR:

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) represents the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime given current fertility rates. A TFR of 2.1 signifies replacement-level fertility, where each generation replaces itself. TFR below 2.1 suggests a declining population over time as each generation produces fewer children than its predecessor.

Factors contributing to fertility decline include:

Aspect | Progress/Initiative

Family Planning | An increase in the use of modern contraceptive methods contributes to a rise in contraceptive prevalence rate.

Higher Age of Marriage | The introduction of a higher age of marriage, reversible spacing (gaps between children) methods, wage compensation systems to undergo sterilisation, and the promotion of small family norms also worked well over the years.

Women’s Empowerment | Improved women’s empowerment indicators also correlate with reduced fertility rates.

Government Initiatives | Sustained efforts by the Indian government, including national-level family planning programs, have driven progress.

Mission Parivar Vikas (2017): Launched to enhance access to contraceptives and family planning services in 146 high fertility districts.

National Family Planning Indemnity Scheme (NFPIS): Initiated in 2005, provides insurance coverage for sterilization-related complications.

Compensation Scheme for Sterilization Acceptors: Started in 2014, provides wage compensation to beneficiaries and service providers for sterilization procedures.

Prime Minister’s Appeal (2019): The PM emphasized population control as a patriotic duty during the Independence Day speech.

Negative Implications of Declining Fertility Rate in India:

• The decline in working-age population: In the next four years, both Tamil Nadu and Kerala will see the first absolute declines in their working-age populations in their histories.

• Skewed sex ratio: It remains a danger. NFHS: families with at least one son are less likely to want more children than families with just one daughter.

• Geographical divide: The stark differences between northern and southern States in terms of basic literacy as well as enrollment in higher education, including in technical fields.

• Economic Dependence of Elderly: The economic dependence of the female elderly is a significant concern; as fewer working-age people will need to support a growing elderly population. Need for pension schemes, long-term care facilities, and healthcare programs for age-related ailments

• Need for pension schemes, long-term care facilities, and healthcare programs for age-related ailments

• High Gender disparities may get aggravated in the Indian workforce

Positive Implications of Declining Fertility Rate in India:

Aspect | Description

Positive Economic Impact | Changes in age structure with fewer children and more working-age adults. Surplus income from a larger working-age population can boost economic development.

Lower Dependency Ratio | Declining TFR leads to a lower dependency ratio (dependents to working-age population), allowing for more economic productivity and resource allocation.

Labour Market Dynamics | The larger working-age population may lead to an increased labour supply, potentially lowering wages in some sectors.

Industries with labour shortages may need to offer higher wages to attract workers

Social Welfare and Healthcare | The ageing population due to declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy demands social welfare and healthcare services for the elderly.

Education and Human Capital | Fewer children may decrease demand for primary and secondary educational infrastructure.

Investments in higher education and skill development become crucial to prepare a smaller cohort of young adults for a competitive workforce.

Capital Accumulation and Investment | Declining fertility leads to increased household investment in education and fewer children’s well-being. Higher savings rates contribute to capital formation, driving economic growth through investments in infrastructure and human capital.

Regional Development and Urbanisation | Declining fertility often accompanies urbanization and regional development. Urban centres become economic hubs, attracting investment, talent, and innovation, promoting infrastructure and enhancing competitiveness.

International Competitiveness | Lower fertility rates result in a younger, more educated workforce, enhancing global competitiveness. A favourable demographic profile improves creditworthiness, investor confidence, and economic stability, attracting foreign investment.

Way forward

• Providing skills: There is a need for much focus on the betterment of the living standard of living by providing skills to the youth and bridging the gap between the workforce.

• Harnessing demographic dividend: The focus of one should be on the various dimensions of population like harnessing the potential of demographic dividend.

• Investing in health, and education and employing elderly people will help societies adapt to inverted population pyramids.

• Behaviour-Change Communication Strategy: The Government must adopt a targeted social and behaviour-change communication strategy to ensure smooth demographic transition

Conclusion

In navigating these demographic complexities, India has the opportunity to leverage its demographic dividend by investing in education, healthcare, and policies that support a balanced and sustainable population structure.

Insta Links

• Fertility rate below replacement level

Mains Link:

Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail. (UPSC 2021)