Impacts of Declining Population
Kartavya Desk Staff
Syllabus: Population and Associated Issues
Source: TH
Context: India is witnessing a demographic shift, with falling fertility rates and a rapidly ageing population in several states, especially in the south. Policymakers are grappling with the implications of this transition, including its socio-economic and political impacts.
Present Demographic Status in India
• Declining Fertility Rates: National average: 2.0 (below replacement level of 2.1). Southern states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala): 1.4-1.5. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh: Above 2.5.
• National average: 2.0 (below replacement level of 2.1).
• Southern states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala): 1.4-1.5.
• Bihar and Uttar Pradesh: Above 2.5.
• Ageing Population: Senior citizens in India: 10.1% in 2021, projected to rise to 15% by 2036 (UNFPA). Kerala: Elderly population projected to be 22.8% by 2036. States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Himachal Pradesh face high old-age dependency ratios.
• Senior citizens in India: 10.1% in 2021, projected to rise to 15% by 2036 (UNFPA).
• Kerala: Elderly population projected to be 22.8% by 2036.
• States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Himachal Pradesh face high old-age dependency ratios.
• Old-Age Dependency Ratio: Kerala: 26.1%, Tamil Nadu: 20.5%, compared to 7.7% in Bihar.
• Kerala: 26.1%, Tamil Nadu: 20.5%, compared to 7.7% in Bihar.
Impacts of Declining Population:
• Positive Impacts
• Reduced Strain on Resources: Slower population growth reduces pressure on infrastructure, natural resources, and basic services. Increased per capita resources: Smaller population size allows for better distribution of resources per individual. Environmental benefits: Reduced demand for energy, water, and land leads to lower ecological footprints.
• Reduced Strain on Resources: Slower population growth reduces pressure on infrastructure, natural resources, and basic services.
• Increased per capita resources: Smaller population size allows for better distribution of resources per individual.
• Environmental benefits: Reduced demand for energy, water, and land leads to lower ecological footprints.
• Negative impacts
• Economic slowdown: Lower working-age population reduces productivity and GDP growth. Decline in sectors reliant on youth demand (education, entertainment, sports). Federal issue: Uneven population growth is set to shake up the federal structure, with the current freeze on the number of seats in Parliament set to expire in 2026. Higher healthcare costs: Increased focus on geriatric care and rising health expenses for ageing populations. Labour shortage: Shrinking workforce impacts industries, services, and agriculture. Social security challenges: Fewer contributions to pension systems strain financial resources for elderly care. Geopolitical risks: Reduced youthfulness may weaken national defense capabilities, increasing susceptibility to threats.
• Economic slowdown: Lower working-age population reduces productivity and GDP growth. Decline in sectors reliant on youth demand (education, entertainment, sports).
• Federal issue: Uneven population growth is set to shake up the federal structure, with the current freeze on the number of seats in Parliament set to expire in 2026.
• Higher healthcare costs: Increased focus on geriatric care and rising health expenses for ageing populations.
• Labour shortage: Shrinking workforce impacts industries, services, and agriculture.
• Social security challenges: Fewer contributions to pension systems strain financial resources for elderly care.
• Geopolitical risks: Reduced youthfulness may weaken national defense capabilities, increasing susceptibility to threats.
Case studies:
• The study by James and Kriti estimated that Uttar Pradesh is likely to gain 12 seats, followed by Bihar (10) and Rajasthan (7), while Tamil Nadu is set to lose nine seats, followed by Kerala (6) and Andhra Pradesh (5), due to their falling share in national population.
• Japan faces a housing crisis with over nine million vacant homes, or *akiya*, due to low birth rates and an ageing population, spreading even to urban centers like Tokyo. This demographic shift threatens economic vibrancy, increases urban decay, and demands urgent global attention.
Way ahead:
• Pro-natalist policies with caution: Incentivize childbearing but focus on gender-equitable policies like parental leave, affordable childcare, and workplace flexibility.
• Leverage migration: Attract and retain economic migrants to balance population gaps and meet labour demands.
• Extend working lifespan: Encourage policies for delayed retirement and retraining older workers to remain economically active.
• Strengthen social security: Develop robust pension systems and healthcare frameworks to support the ageing population.
• Boost Productivity with Technology: Invest in automation, AI, and robotics to offset labour shortages and enhance efficiency.
Conclusion:
While India transitions to an ageing society, proactive measures are essential to harness opportunities and mitigate challenges. Policies must balance promoting sustainable fertility rates, improving social security, and ensuring economic stability to maintain India’s growth trajectory.
Insta Links:
• Population-control-vs-population-management-in-India
• Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail. (UPSC-2021)
• “Empowering women is the key to control the population growth.’’ Discuss. (UPSC-2019)
• Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty or poverty is the main cause of population increase in India. (UPSC-2015)