Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity

Syllabus: Agriculture

Source: DTE

Context: The report “Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity,” published in Scientific Reports, showed a projected decline in food production by 2050 under various climate change scenarios.

What is Food Insecurity?

Food insecurity is the lack of reliable access to sufficient, affordable, and nutritious food. Severe food insecurity is when individuals frequently run out of food, go hungry, and lack the means to eat regularly.

Major Findings of the Report:

• Global Food Production Decline: Heat and water stress could lead to a 6-14% decrease in global food production by 2050.

• Increase in Food Insecurity: The number of people with severe food insecurity could rise by up to 1.36 billion by 2050 compared to 2020.

• Regional Food Production Decline: India: almost 16% decline China: 22% decline United States: about 12% decline Africa: about 8-11% decline Australia: about 14% decline Central America: about 19% decline

• India: almost 16% decline

• China: 22% decline

• United States: about 12% decline

• Africa: about 8-11% decline

• Australia: about 14% decline

• Central America: about 19% decline

• Shift in Food Trade: Regions like China and ASEAN could become food importers by 2050.

• Food Price Increase: Significant increases in food prices, especially under extreme warming scenarios and in regions with high water stress.

• Impact of Extreme Weather: Weather extremes have been a major driver of acute food insecurity, affecting over 72 million people in 18 countries.

• Record-breaking Temperatures: May 2024 was the warmest May on record, continuing a trend of record-breaking monthly temperatures.

• Persistent Acute Food Insecurity: Nearly 282 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2023, with extreme weather being a significant factor.

Other Impacts of climate change on the food system:

Aspect of Food System | Impact of Climate Change

Crop Production | 1. Alters growing conditions, affecting crop yields and quality. 2. Increased temperatures can lead to heat stress in crops. 3. Changes in precipitation patterns can result in droughts or floods. 4. Altered pest and disease dynamics affect crop health.

Food Availability | 1. Unpredictable weather patterns disrupt seasonal food availability 2. Extreme weather events can damage crops and disrupt supply chains 3. Reduced food availability can lead to price fluctuations and shortages.

Food Quality and Safety | 1. Altered climate conditions affect the nutritional content of crops. 2. Increased temperatures can lead to spoilage and food safety issues 3. Changes in water availability impact food processing and safety.

Food Security | 1. Climate-induced crop failures can lead to food insecurity 2. Vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by food shortages 3. Migration and conflict may result from food-related stressors.

Food Distribution | 1. Transportation routes may be disrupted due to extreme weather events. 2. Increased energy costs for transportation impact food prices 3. Changes in trade patterns affect global food distribution.

Food Waste | 1. Climate change can exacerbate food waste due to spoilage from temperature fluctuations 2. Resource-intensive food production contributes to waste.

Ecosystem Disruption | 1. Climate change alters ecosystems and biodiversity, affecting pollinators and natural pest control 2. Loss of biodiversity can disrupt food production and the ecosystem

1. 1.Increased temperatures can lead to heat stress in crops.

1. 1.Changes in precipitation patterns can result in droughts or floods.

1. 1.Altered pest and disease dynamics affect crop health.

1. 1.Extreme weather events can damage crops and disrupt supply chains

1. 1.Reduced food availability can lead to price fluctuations and shortages.

1. 1.Increased temperatures can lead to spoilage and food safety issues

1. 1.Changes in water availability impact food processing and safety.

1. 1.Vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by food shortages

1. 1.Migration and conflict may result from food-related stressors.

1. 1.Increased energy costs for transportation impact food prices

1. 1.Changes in trade patterns affect global food distribution.

1. 1.Resource-intensive food production contributes to waste.

1. 1.Loss of biodiversity can disrupt food production and the ecosystem

Solutions:

• Importance of Adaptation: Scaling up support, including finance, capacity-building, and technology transfer, is urgent to enhance adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability.

• Crop diversification: Diversifying cropping patterns, particularly towards millets, pulses, and horticulture, for sustainable agriculture.

• Adaptation Finance: Multilateral banks, financial institutions, and the private sector should mobilize more resources for adaptation.

• Multi-Pronged Approach: Addressing the climate-hunger crisis involves creating resilient livelihoods, promoting climate-resilient food crops, empowering women, supporting small-holder farmers, and increasing knowledge about vulnerability and food security.

• Sustainable Food Systems: Sustainability should be integrated into production, value chains, and consumption. Cash transfers for sustainable agriculture can be more effective than input subsidies.

• Cash transfers for sustainable agriculture can be more effective than input subsidies.

• Non-Agriculture Sector: Labor-intensive manufacturing and services can reduce the pressure on agriculture, especially for smallholders and informal workers. Strengthening rural MSMEs and the food processing sector is part of the solution.

• Strengthening rural MSMEs and the food processing sector is part of the solution.

Insta Links:

Climate change and agriculture

Mains Links:

What measures should India take to weather-proof its food security in the face of climate change?