Expert Explains: What Japan poll results reveal about country’s mood, and the opportunity for India

Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) securing a landslide victory in Japan’s Lower House snap elections on Sunday (February 8) marks more than a routine renewal of mandate. It signals a decisive shift in the country’s political mood and opens the door to a more assertive phase in domestic governance and foreign policy. Takaichi, 64, came to power in October 2025, becoming Japan’s first woman prime minister. She called for snap polls three weeks ago, aiming to secure stronger backing for her policies. With the LDP winning 316 of the 465 seats (a two-thirds supermajority), Takaichi now commands the strongest parliamentary position any Japanese leader has enjoyed in years. The scale of the triumph gives her not only authority but momentum — an unusual combination in a political system long associated with cautious incrementalism. ## Why have stock markets reacted well to Takaichi’s win? The Japan Times reported that Tokyo stocks rallied more than 5% to new highs on Monday morning. This is a reflection of the scale of the victory and expectations of smoother policymaking. For investors, it indicates continuity and the government’s ease in pushing through its agenda, amid a diminished opposition. The election result also validates Takaichi’s gamble on a platform that fused economic stimulus with national security and conservative social values. Her promise of major tax cuts, especially on food, and increased defence spending unsettled markets before polling day. However, the post-election surge in equities and the so-called “Takaichi trade” suggest that investors are reassured by her emphasis on what she calls “responsible and proactive fiscal policy.” Japan’s deficit, now the smallest in the G-7 group of Western democracies, has given Takaichi room to argue that affordability is not in question. The early market reaction, with the Nikkei and Topix indices hitting new highs, indicates that confidence in her leadership has outweighed fears of fiscal recklessness. What does the win show about the mood in Japan? Politically, Takaichi has reshaped the conservative LDP’s coalition of voters. Her openly nationalistic tone, focus on constitutional revision, and resistance to progressive social reforms such as separate surnames for married couples brought back conservative voters who had drifted to smaller right-leaning parties like Sanseito and the Democratic Party for the People. At the same time, the symbolism of her own political rise injected novelty into a system dominated by elderly male elites. Younger voters, in particular, appear to have responded to this break with tradition, giving her a personal approval rating hovering near 70% — far above the party’s own base. The defeat of the Centrist Reform Alliance underscores how fragmented and reactive the opposition has become. Their more inclusive stance on immigration and foreigners failed to match the mood of an electorate increasingly concerned about social cohesion and national identity. With coalition partners also pushing for tighter residency and land ownership rules, Japan seems poised for a more guarded approach to globalisation at home, even as it remains deeply enmeshed in global trade abroad. The most consequential impact of Takaichi’s victory, however, lies in national security and constitutional reform. Her supermajority allows the ruling bloc to override upper house resistance and initiate constitutional amendments — a core ambition of the LDP. Reinterpreting or revising Japan’s pacifist Constitution would mark a historic departure from post-war orthodoxy. Coupled with her pledge to boost defence spending, this suggests a Japan more willing to define itself as a “normal” military power in an increasingly unstable Indo-Pacific. How might the mandate affect Japan’s ties with the US and China? This shift will reverberate across the region. Relations with the United States will remain the anchor of Japan’s foreign policy. Takaichi has been explicit about reaffirming the alliance, and her upcoming visit to Washington in March to meet President Trump signals continuity with a harder edge. Trump’s endorsement of her candidacy underscores their personal rapport and hints at a shared outlook on China and security. And yet, the triangular dynamic with Beijing complicates matters. Trump’s pursuit of a “stable” relationship with China places Tokyo in a delicate position: aligned with Washington but directly exposed to Chinese pressure. Takaichi’s own stance toward China has been notably hawkish. Her remarks hinting at Japanese involvement in a Taiwan contingency triggered immediate retaliation in the form of rare-earth export restrictions and travel warnings from Beijing. This episode illustrates the risks of her approach: while it strengthens deterrence and reassures domestic conservatives, it also invites economic and diplomatic countermeasures from China. The November Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen may offer a chance to stabilise ties, but no breakthrough appears imminent. Japan under Takaichi seems set for a policy of guarded engagement, firm on security, pragmatic on trade, and prepared for friction. What is the relevance of the results for India-Japan ties? In this broader realignment, India emerges as a natural and increasingly important partner. Prime Minister Modi’s early congratulations to Takaichi were more than diplomatic courtesy; they reflected the strategic convergence between New Delhi and Tokyo. Both countries share concerns about China’s assertiveness, are committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific, and see value in diversifying supply chains away from excessive dependence on Beijing. Takaichi’s emphasis on defence and constitutional reform is likely to deepen cooperation with India in areas such as maritime security, joint military exercises, and technology partnerships. Economically, her fiscal activism and push for strategic industries align with India’s own ambitions under “Make in India” and infrastructure expansion. Japanese investment in India, already substantial in railways, manufacturing, and urban development, can be expected to expand, framed now within a more explicit security logic. The Japan-India partnership will likely evolve from being largely economic and symbolic into one with sharper strategic content, embedded in the Quad and broader Indo-Pacific frameworks. A critical minerals supply chain between Japan, India, and Africa is also being envisaged. Sanae Takaichi’s victory thus represents both continuity and rupture. Domestically, she has revived conservative confidence and market optimism. Regionally, she is steering Japan toward a more assertive role that will test its relations with China and reshape its strategic identity. For India, this moment offers an opportunity to lock in a deeper, more durable partnership with a Japan newly conscious of its power and purpose. Apart from renewing the government, this election has redefined Japan’s direction. Gurjit Singh is a former Ambassador and Japanologist, and author of ‘The Durian Flavour, India, ASEAN and the Act East Policy’.