Expert Explains: Does Japanese PM Takaichi’s historic win deal a blow to ties with China? Why some in China say yes

Braving one of the heaviest snowfalls this winter, Japanese voters took part in an election for the lower house of the National Diet or Parliament and delivered a historic mandate to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on February 8. To quote Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi herself, the election was a gamble, but one that ultimately enabled the conservative LDP to win 316 seats in a house of 465 members — the highest share since the party was founded in 1955. In neighbouring China, however, the landslide victory of “China-hawk” Takaichi has been described as a heavy blow to the bilateral relations in various quarters. Perusing through the commentary in China’s heavily regulated media shows that two major topics are being discussed after the results. The first is whether such a mandate will prove to be “fortunate” or “unfortunate” for the future of an economically declining Japan. Experts in China are also beginning to doubt Beijing’s continuing strategy of exerting economic pressure on Tokyo over geopolitical differences. A Chinese online news platform republished parts of a Bloomberg news report, which said, “Takaichi’s historic election victory has put Chinese President Xi Jinping in a difficult position: whether to cultivate a positive relationship with Japan’s most popular post-war leader or maintain a cold relationship with Japan, America’s most important Asian ally.” ## Decoding China’s hostile attitude towards Sanae Takaichi China had cause for alarm the day that Takaichi was elected as the president of the LDP in early October last year, and later Japan’s first woman prime minister. Takaichi, 64, is a member of the right-wing faction within the LDP, a China hawk, and proactive in advocating a revisionist view of Japan’s military history. She is a regular visitor to the annual autumn festival held at Yasukuni, a Tokyo shrine memorialising Japan’s war heroes (or war criminals, as seen by China and Japan’s other neighbours). Much before Takaichi attracted worldwide media attention last October, her name had been raising eyebrows in Beijing. A young, right-wing protégé of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she was known for advocating Abe-like “hard-nosed” foreign policy views, particularly on China and Taiwan. “She publicly expressed interest in forming a security partnership with Taiwan, a move that would directly challenge Beijing’s ‘One-China’ principle,” Forbes reported on the day Takaichi became the prime minister. Under this principle, China has stated that countries seeking to form diplomatic ties with it must recognise Taiwan as a part of it, and thus, they cannot establish formal relations with Taiwan. Soon after, Takaichi’s remarks led to escalated tensions with China over Taiwan. On November 7, 2025, while speaking in the Diet, Takaichi stated that if Beijing were to impose a military blockade around Taiwan, then “no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation [for Japan].” The comments were seen as hinting at Japanese military involvement. ## Takaichi’s ‘Iron Lady’ image As expected, China reacted strongly and opposed Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks, which were viewed by Beijing as crossing a “red line.” Beijing unleashed economic sanctions and attempted a diplomatic isolation, demanding that Takaichi either apologise or retract her statement. Though perceived in many quarters as a novice and inexperienced as a leader in foreign affairs, Takaichi knew full well her remark containing the phrase “survival-threatening situation” was understood in Beijing as meaning Japan’s remilitarisation. The more Beijing insisted she take back her words, the more Takaichi hardened her position. In that, Takaichi must be credited for creating confusion among the Japan specialists in Beijing and, on the other hand, splitting political opinion within Japan, which has followed a pacifist defence policy since World War 2. She became the first Japanese sitting prime minister to explicitly state that a conflict over Taiwan would threaten Japan’s economic interests and pose a danger to its own islands in the East China Sea. No wonder that following the remark, several voices on Chinese websites, including one on 163.com, stated that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) should take this opportunity “to turn the Miyako Strait and the Osumi Strait into its own ‘backyard’.” ## Beijing’s strategy after Takaichi’s landslide win Most Chinese experts and analysts have cited the following reasons for the landslide win. First, the Japanese right-wing political forces deliberately distorted facts and hyped up the “China threat”. Second, Takaichi used this to cultivate a “tough image” to attract young voters. Third, Takaichi’s “sudden snap poll announcement” left the opposition with no time to prepare for the elections. Furthermore, several conclusions have been put forth on the future of China-Japan relations. First, once the initial euphoria of the victory dies out, the people in Japan will realise this is not at all the “Takaichi era” in Japanese politics. Second, China must remain cautious and prepare well for worsening Sino-Japanese relations under Takaichi 2.0. Third, with uncertainty ushering in the Japan-US relations and further decline in Japan’s relations with China, political instability is going to be the order of the day in both East Asia and Southeast Asia. But, if what people in China express on online forums is representative of the Chinese people in general, then there is a divide between their opinions and those of scholars and experts. Reacting to a Chinese mainstream online media article titled “Takaichi’s attempt to rise to power through ‘fandom’ may end in failure,” several readers angrily wrote to the editor to not publish misleading analyses, and that the results simply reflected the choices of the Japanese people. In sum, like most Japanese media outlets, the consensus among scholars and the media in China, too, was against Takaichi winning big in this election. Now that she has won a strong mandate, there is a lack of clarity going forward. As China prepares for US President Donald Trump’s likely visit to Beijing in April, it will also be attempting to settle on a strategy in dealing with what is seemingly a politically united, strong, and determined right-wing, conservative, and “anti-China” Japan under Sanae Takaichi. Hemant Adlakha teaches Chinese at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. He is also Vice Chairperson and an Honorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies (ICS), New Delhi.