Expert Explains | Andhra Pradesh’s effort to improve fertility rate promising, but not enough

In order to cope with a declining total fertility rate (TFR), the Andhra Pradesh government led by Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has incentivised births in the state through a population policy introduced earlier this month. The state government said that shifting to a “population management” method with incentives for birthing more children will help the state towards reaping better workforce participation.

TFR denotes the average number of children born to a woman. A TFR of 2.1, called replacement level fertility, means two parents can be replaced by two children (0.1 being the mortality adjustment since all children born might not survive). At 1.5, AP’s present TFR is lower than the national average of 2.1.

According to population experts, AP reached the replacement level (2.1) in 2005 and from 2015 onwards, its TFR has been oscillating between 1.5 and 1.7; in the last few years, it has mostly hovered around 1.5.

Moreover, AP’s mean age of marriage was 17.6 years in 2005. Since then, this has been increasing and reached 22.9 this year, meaning more people are opting for relatively late marriages.

In this context, Naidu has been urging young families in AP to have more than two children. The state has also introduced support for IVF treatment.

Professor KS James, a population expert who was director of the International Institute of Population Studies, Mumbai, and is currently at the Centre for Health and Wellbeing at Princeton University (US), told The Indian Express that governments, including AP, are thinking in the right direction but need to diversify their approach.

The AP government says it has moved from population control to population management. How does this work?

Yes, this is an important shift, and it has been relevant not only now but even earlier. Population control policies typically involve measures such as incentives, disincentives, and sometimes coercive approaches to reduce fertility rates. In contrast, population management refers to a rights-based approach that emphasises reproductive health and rights, informed choice, and individual well-being.

This approach is largely influenced by the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) by the UN in 1994, for which even India is a signatory. But implementation was not often in line with that. Therefore, this change is welcome, as it aligns with the principles established in the 1994 ICPD principles.

The government has decided to incentivise the birth of the second and third child. Has this worked in other countries?

Evidence suggests that the direct impact of family policies through incentives has not had a significant effect on increasing birth rates. However, such policies do have broader benefits. Research indicates that their impact is more substantial when viewed in terms of helping parents balance work and family responsibilities, improving gender equality, and creating a supportive environment for raising children.

Therefore, the objective should not be limited to increasing fertility, but should also focus on fostering a more supportive family environment and improving child well-being.

AP’s TFR is at 1.5. Is this an alarming situation that needs government intervention?

TFR can sometimes decline due to various factors. For instance, increasing levels of education in recent years may lead to the postponement of marriage and childbearing, which can temporarily reduce TFR. However, fertility levels may rise slightly later if this is the case. Therefore, a TFR of 1.5 observed over a short period is not necessarily a clear indication of a long-term trend or cause for alarm.

The AP government said that the joint family system could provide support for bigger families. Does this work?

Joint family systems were more relevant during periods when large agricultural landholdings required collective labour. However, with rapidly changing economic structures and increasing urbanisation, such arrangements may no longer be practical or desirable for many families. Therefore, promoting joint family systems as a strategy to increase fertility may not be effective in contemporary contexts.

Is incentivising IVF and disincentivising contraceptive methods the way forward?

IVF primarily benefits couples who wish to have children but are unable to do so due to infertility. However, such cases represent only a small proportion of all couples, and therefore, IVF is unlikely to have a significant impact on overall fertility levels. While supporting access to IVF is beneficial for affected families, its broader demographic impact would likely be minimal.

On paper, is the AP government’s plan for increasing TFR workable?

In many countries, low fertility is partly due to an increasing proportion of men and women remaining unmarried. However, this does not appear to be the case in AP, where marriage remains nearly universal, although it is being postponed. Therefore, the current low TFR may not be permanent.

If there is a significant decline in marriage rates in the future, policies may be needed to support and facilitate marriage, such as helping young people secure stable employment and housing. At present, however, the existing policies do not seem to address these underlying factors.

Nikhila Henry is an Assistant Editor at The Indian Express, based in Hyderabad. With a career spanning 17 years, she has established herself as an authoritative voice on South Indian affairs, specialising in the complex intersections of politics, education, and social justice. Experience & Career: Nikhila commenced her journalism career in 2007 as an education correspondent for The Times of India in Hyderabad,where she gained recognition for her coverage of student politics. Her professional trajectory includes a four-year tenure at The Hindu, where she focused on minority affairs and social welfare. In 2019, she took on a leadership role as the South Bureau Chief for The Quint, where she directed regional coverage across all five South Indian states. Her expansive career also includes a tenure at the BBC in New Delhi and contributions to prestigious international outlets such as The Sunday Times (London) and HuffPost India. Expertise & Focus Areas Nikhila’s reportage is marked by a deep-seated understanding of grassroots movements and institutional policy. Her core focus areas include: Regional Politics: Comprehensive analysis of the socio-political dynamics across South India. Education & Student Movements: Chronicling the evolution of Indian academics and the rise of youth activism. Minority Affairs: Rigorous reporting on the welfare, rights, and challenges facing marginalized communities. National Beat: Elevating regional stories to national prominence through investigative and on-ground reporting. Authoritativeness & Trust A respected figure in Indian media, Nikhila is not only a seasoned reporter but also an accomplished author and editor. She authored the critically acclaimed book The Ferment: Youth Unrest in India and edited Caste is Not a Rumour, a collection of writings by Rohith Vemula. Her dual background in daily news reporting and long-form authorship allows her to provide readers with a nuanced, historically-informed perspective on contemporary Indian society. Find all stories by Nikhila Henry here. ... Read More