China’s ‘grey-zone’ warfare tactics and its impact
Kartavya Desk Staff
Syllabus: Internal Security/ International Relations
- •Source: TH*
Context: China is using ‘grey-zone’ tactics against Taiwan involving sophisticated methods to frustrate the island’s leadership. This includes simulated audiovisuals depicting invasion scenarios and sustained pressure through military sorties and cognitive warfare tactics.
What is Grey-zone warfare?
Grey-zone warfare refers to a strategic approach where aggressors employ a combination of conventional and non-conventional methods to harm adversaries without triggering a full-scale military response. It operates in the ambiguous space between peace and overt conflict, utilizing tactics like cyberattacks, economic coercion, disinformation campaigns, and proxy forces to achieve strategic objectives.
Characteristics of Grey-zone Warfare:
• Below threshold operations: Aggressors employ non-military tools that don’t warrant a military response.
• Gradual bold steps: Actions unfold over time, often spanning years or decades, minimizing chances for decisive countermeasures.
• Lack of attributability: Aggressors evade accountability, making it challenging to attribute actions and formulate responses.
• Target specificity: Typically targets vulnerable nations with limited capacity for retaliation due to domestic or strategic constraints.
Background of China-Taiwan Conflict:
The China-Taiwan conflict stems from the Chinese Civil War, with the Nationalist Party retreating to Taiwan in 1949. China claims Taiwan as a province, but Taiwan sees itself as a separate, democratic entity. This dispute over Taiwan’s status fuels tensions. Taiwan’s strategic location and semiconductor industry make it crucial.
What Techniques are being used by China as a part of its ‘Grey zone warfare’ against Taiwan:
Technique | Description
Cognitive Warfare | China’s Weibo account released a 3D animation video depicting an invasion scenario of Taiwan’s areas in Taipei and Kaohsiung with land warship-based ballistic missile launchers.
Sustained Military Pressure | China has maintained sustained pressure on Taiwan’s defence and Intelligence forces since 2020, with daily sorties conducted by PLA fighter jets, UAVs, strategic fighters, and early warning aircraft inducing wear-out within Taiwanese forces.
Intelligence Gathering | UAVs are deployed to conduct intelligence work in the areas surrounding the island.
Ideological and Psychological | Pushing narratives within Taiwanese territory to thrust ideological choices upon its citizens by initiating public discussions on social media and garnering attention for the Chinese cause.
Economic Warfare | China has taken coercive economic measures, leveraging the cross-strait trade and business interdependence to seek concessions. Example: Unilateral suspension of preferential tax rates for chemical imports from Taiwan under the ECFA.
Other tactics being used by different states as part of Grey-Zone Warfare:
• Maritime militia: State-sponsored actors use non-state actors like “maritime militia” to harass coastal communities, disrupt trade routes, and test boundaries without triggering direct conflict. Eg: China’s use of Coast Guard vessels and fishing fleets in the South China Sea against other claimants.
• Eg: China’s use of Coast Guard vessels and fishing fleets in the South China Sea against other claimants.
• Combat Drones: Armed drones pose new threats, targeting warships, and critical infrastructure, and conducting surveillance and intelligence gathering. Eg: Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking ships in the Red Sea with drones.
• Eg: Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking ships in the Red Sea with drones.
• Persistent Piracy: While declining, Somali pirates still operate in the Indian Ocean, threatening shipping and hindering trade. Eg: 2023 hijacking of Bulk carrier vessel MV Ruen in the Arabian Sea.
• Eg: 2023 hijacking of Bulk carrier vessel MV Ruen in the Arabian Sea.
• Environmental Crimes: IUU or Illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing depletes fish stocks, harms ecosystems, and disadvantages legitimate fishermen. Eg: Large-scale IUU fishing by Chinese vessels in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.
• Eg: Large-scale IUU fishing by Chinese vessels in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.
China’s Grey Zone Tactics against India:
• South China Sea Activities: China utilizes naval and civilian vessels to assert control over the South China Sea, causing tensions with neighbouring countries, including India.
• Infrastructure Construction in Border Areas: China builds infrastructure and establishes villages near India’s borders, reinforcing territorial assertions and gaining strategic advantages.
• Investments in Digital Technologies: China directs investments into Indian apps, media, and digital platforms, potentially influencing public perceptions and narratives.
How is India impacted due to these challenges?
• National Security Concerns: Proxy conflicts with non-state actors can destabilize coastal regions, threaten communication cables, and potentially escalate into regional tensions. Eg: 2018 Maldives political crisis.
• Eg: 2018 Maldives political crisis.
• Disruptions to trade: Piracy and grey-zone warfare attacks on shipping routes can cost India billions annually, impacting vital imports like oil and raw materials. Eg: the current cost of shipping rose due to the Red Sea and Hormuz instability.
• Eg: the current cost of shipping rose due to the Red Sea and Hormuz instability.
• Terrorism: Maritime terrorism poses a direct threat to coastal cities, critical infrastructure, and tourism-reliant communities. Eg: 2008 Mumbai attacks.
• Eg: 2008 Mumbai attacks.
• Pollution: Oil spills from accidents or deliberate dumping can devastate marine ecosystems, impacting fishing, tourism, and public health. Eg: 2021 Sri Lanka oil spill.
• Eg: 2021 Sri Lanka oil spill.
• Climate change: Rising sea levels and increasing storm frequency threaten coastal infrastructure, displace communities, and exacerbate pollution concerns. Eg: India is the 7th-most vulnerable country with respect to climate extremes (Germanwatch 2020).
• Eg: India is the 7th-most vulnerable country with respect to climate extremes (Germanwatch 2020).
India’s Preparedness against Grey-zone Warfare:
• Chief of Defence Staff: Coordinates the three Services (Army, Air Force, Navy).
• Self-reliance in Defence Manufacturing: Promoted through initiatives like Defence Procurement Procedure (DAP) 2020.
• Cooperation with like-minded countries: Signed agreements like the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with the US.
• Other measures: Establishment of the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), among others.
Needful measures:
• Modernize Naval Capabilities: Invest in advanced submarines, drones, and electronic warfare systems to counter emerging threats like grey-zone activities and drone attacks. Eg: Kalvari-class submarines under Project 75I.
• Eg: Kalvari-class submarines under Project 75I.
• International Cooperation: Partner with regional and global powers to share intelligence, combat piracy, and address environmental crimes. g.: multilateral initiatives like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD).
• g.: multilateral initiatives like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD).
• Coastal Surveillance and Infrastructure: Enhance coast guard patrols, utilize satellite technology, and strengthen critical port infrastructure to deter attacks and monitor threats. Eg: Coastal Radar Chain Project.
• Eg: Coastal Radar Chain Project.
• Sustainable Fisheries Management: Implement stricter regulations, promote responsible fishing practices, and collaborate with neighbouring countries to combat illegal fishing. Eg: National Policy on Marine Fisheries 2017.
• Eg: National Policy on Marine Fisheries 2017.
• Climate Change Adaptation: Invest in coastal infrastructure resilience, develop early warning systems for natural disasters, and promote public awareness and preparedness. Eg: National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC).
• Eg: National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC).
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the diverse challenges posed by the complex maritime domain demand innovative and collaborative solutions. India’s “Security and Growth for All in the Region” (SAGAR) initiative exemplifies a proactive approach, prioritizing both regional security and shared prosperity in the Indian Ocean.
Insta links:
• Today’s weapon of choice, its expanding dimensions
Mains Links:
Q South China Sea has assumed great geopolitical significance in the present context. Comment. (UPSC 2016)