Battle lines drawn for 37 Rajya Sabha seats in 10 states: What is at stake for NDA, INDIA bloc

With the Election Commission (EC) on Wednesday announcing elections for 37 Rajya Sabha seats across 10 states, which will fall vacant in early April, the ruling BJP-led NDA is looking to secure a likely boost in its numbers in the Upper House. The Opposition INDIA bloc, which is likely to see a decline in its Rajya Sabha tally, will be keenly focusing on the March 16 polls as it may have implications that could test the cohesion of its grouping. Maharashtra, with seven retiring MPs – including NCP(SP) chief Sharad Pawar, RPI (Athawale) president Ramdas Athawale and Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Priyanka Chaturvedi – accounts for the highest number of vacancies. Following closely is Tamil Nadu with six vacancies, including retiring MPs like AIADMK’s M Thambidurai and DMK’s Tiruchi Siva. Other prominent members who are set to retire from the Upper House in April include Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi (Telangana), RLM chief Upendra Kushwaha (Bihar), and Trinamool Congress’s Saket Gokhale (West Bengal). Sources in the BJP said while the party is expecting an increase in its tally, the polls could also see its newly appointed national president Nitin Nabin enter the Upper House for the first time. “The NDA’s overall strength will certainly increase but precise projections are difficult as several Rajya Sabha MPs of alliance partners, including 10 from the party, will retire in phases this year. But we are confident of moving closer to the majority mark on our own in the Upper House,” a senior BJP leader said. Currently, the BJP has 103 MPs in the 245-member Rajya Sabha and insiders say its improved Assembly numbers, especially in Maharashtra (131 of 288 MLAs) and Bihar (89 of 243 MLAs), will help it gain seats. The NDA’s collective strength is 133 now. However, some BJP leaders also noted that the party’s improved tally in Assemblies also trigger competing aspirations with its NDA alliance partners. “Balancing equations with Mahayuti allies like Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the Sunetra Pawar-led NCP is politically significant. In Bihar, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan’s growing presence is also expected to factor into negotiations,” BJP sources said, adding the “two-term per MP rule” would also be taken into account while zeroing in on candidates. This, sources said, is likely to pave the way for “proven organisational hands” to enter the Rajya Sabha, allowing “fresh blood” to be infused into Nabin’s new team. In the Upper House elections, the BJP has the edge in Assam, which will see three seats fall vacant. The BJP has 67 MLAs in the 126-member Assam Assembly and 19 legislators from alliance partners. In Odisha, where four seats would fall vacant, the BJP holds an advantage with 79 MLAs in the 147-member House, ahead of the BJD’s 50 and the Congress’s 14. The BJP also holds an advantage in Chhattisgarh and Haryana, which will see polls for two Rajya Sabha seats each. Opposition play The leaders of the INDIA alliance concede that the upcoming cycle of polls is likely to weaken their overall strength in the Rajya Sabha. “The biggest concern is Maharashtra, where parties like the Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) are likely to see reduced representation,” a Congress MP said. Currently the Opposition bloc has 79 MPs, including 27 from the Congress, 12 from the TMC, 10 from the DMK and five from the RJD. The TMC, however, is comfortably placed in Bengal, where it has 225 MLAs in the 294-member Assembly. Similarly, the Congress holds the advantage in Telangana with 64 MLAs in the 119-member House while the DMK-led alliance holds a majority in Tamil Nadu. A total of 71 Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled to fall vacant this year. Of those MPs retiring, 30 are from the BJP, eight from the Congress, four from the DMK, three from the TMC, and two each from the JD(U) and NCP (SP), among others. Jatin Anand is an Assistant Editor with the national political bureau of The Indian Express. With over 16 years of experience in mainstream journalism, he is a seasoned expert in national governance, electoral politics, and bureaucratic affairs. Having covered high-stakes beats including the Election Commission of India (ECI), intelligence, and urban development, Jatin provides authoritative analysis of the forces shaping Indian democracy. He is an alumnus of Zakir Husain Delhi College (DU) and the prestigious Asian College of Journalism (ACJ), Chennai, where he specialized in Print Journalism. Expertise High-Stakes Beat Coverage: Throughout his decade-and-a-half career, Jatin has covered some of the most sensitive and influential beats in the country, including: The Election Commission of India (ECI): Monitoring electoral policy, reforms, and the conduct of national and state polls. National Security & Intelligence: Reporting on the internal mechanisms and developments within India's security apparatus. Urban Development: Analyzing the policies and bureaucratic processes driving the transformation of India’s cities. National Political Bureau: In his current role, he tracks the intersection of policy and politics, offering deep-dive reporting on the Union government and national political movements. Academic Credentials: Zakir Husain Delhi College (DU): Alumnus of one of Delhi's premier institutions. Asian College of Journalism (ACJ), Chennai: Specialized in Print Journalism at India's most prestigious journalism school. ... Read More Asad Rehman is with the national bureau of The Indian Express and covers politics and policy focusing on religious minorities in India. A journalist for over eight years, Rehman moved to this role after covering Uttar Pradesh for five years for The Indian Express. During his time in Uttar Pradesh, he covered politics, crime, health, and human rights among other issues. He did extensive ground reports and covered the protests against the new citizenship law during which many were killed in the state. During the Covid pandemic, he did extensive ground reporting on the migration of workers from the metropolitan cities to villages in Uttar Pradesh. He has also covered some landmark litigations, including the Babri Masjid-Ram temple case and the ongoing Gyanvapi-Kashi Vishwanath temple dispute. Prior to that, he worked on The Indian Express national desk for three years where he was a copy editor. Rehman studied at La Martiniere, Lucknow and then went on to do a bachelor's degree in History from Ramjas College, Delhi University. He also has a Masters degree from the AJK Mass Communication Research Centre, Jamia Millia Islamia. ... Read More